March Madness is just around the corner, and a lot of people know about the brackets that come along with it. A lot of people blindly fill out brackets based on certain biases they have, and some fill it out with the potential of getting the perfect bracket. If you’re going to try to make the perfect bracket or if you’re filling one out just for the fun of it, here are a few teams to look out for and a few teams to avoid.
A lot of people want a big upset to happen every year. People love to see the 16 seed smaller college upset a basketball powerhouse like when Fairleigh Dickinson recently beat Purdue with 7 foot 3 Zach Edey. Unfortunately, I wouldn’t pick a 16 seed to win a game this year. College Basketball is the most top stacked it has been in a long time. A lot of the top seeds this year have the best of the best players and the gap between the power 5 teams in the tourney and the mid major teams that get conference tournament bigs might be one of the largest gaps in a long time. Added on to the fact that only two 16 seeds have ever upset a 1 seed, an upset that big happening this year will likely not happen.
A higher seed I would be looking away from picking to go far this year is North Carolina. North Carolina was looked at as having a lot of upset potential after beating No. 1 Duke at home on a game winning three. That was until their stud freshman, Caleb Wilson, broke his hand during a practice and was told he’d be out for the next month. During that stretch of him being out, they lost to NC State, an unranked team, by 30. They also lost to Miami (FL), but even their wins are very close wins against teams that aren’t ranked, minus their 3 point win against No. 24 Louisville. Now, Caleb Wilson is out for the year after breaking his thumb while trying to come back from a broken hand. Without him, North Carolina’s ceiling is a lot smaller and the upset potential against them increases significantly. Although they still have a decent chance of getting past their first game, I wouldn’t pick North Carolina to go on any upset run in March.
If there is any one seed that I’d take going into March Madness, it would be Florida. Florida’s start of the year was pretty rough, with new transfers coming in struggling to play together as a team and Xavian Lee in particular having a brutal shooting stretch. But since the mid January mark, Florida has not lost a game. They’ve beaten all the top teams in a loaded SEC conference, including wins against Alabama, Arkansas, and twice against Kentucky. Florida’s guards have stepped a lot more in the recent weeks, as Boogie Fland and Xavian Lee look to be stepping into form now. Add that with their already amazing frontcourt of Thomas Haugh and Alex Condon, Florida is poised to make another deep run into March Madness and might have the chance to be repeat champions.
A lot of commotion has been on Miami (OH) as of late. They were the only team who was still undefeated in college basketball which has caused them to become one of the higher-picked teams to go far because of how much they’ve won this year. This regular season success has a lot of doubters against it though. The RedHawk’s schedule was really light compared to a lot of the other tournament teams. Barring the MAC championship game, Miami (OH) has only played against two Quad 2 teams all year, with their other 29 opponents being Quad 3 and Quad 4 wins, which do not translate at all to March Madness. Not playing a single power 5 team all year will hurt them a lot because that’s who they’ll need to beat to go far into March Madness. As much as Miami (OH) has had a lot of toughness and showed that they are very clutch in close game situations, they haven’t played the competition to be a real threat going into March Madness. They could still maybe sneak by a game or 2, but I doubt Miami (OH) will have many answers when they come up against a power 5 team that has played against much better teams and have been battle tested. With all that being said, Miami (OH) has had an unbelievable season to their standards, but they likely will fall out of March Madness earlier than expected.
Kansas is a very intriguing team in this year’s tournament. They have one of the best players in college basketball in Darryn Peterson. Darryn Peterson is a projected lottery pick and rightfully so, as he can get a bucket from anywhere on the court and is one of the most polished scorers we’ve seen as a freshman guard in a while. His problem? He can’t stay on the court. He’s sat out 30-50% of Kansas’s games this year and even when he plays, sometimes he subs himself out of games due to cramping and doesn’t come back in. There have probably been 8-10 games this season where Darryn Peterson has looked amazing in the first half and then he subs himself out in the second half and doesn’t come back in the game. This is very much a concern for the Jayhawks, as having your best player on the court only some of the time can hurt them a lot. That being said, if Darryn Peterson can stay completely healthy during tournament time and Kansas can put the pieces together, they will be a difficult team to play against when March Madness starts.
The Big Ten as a whole will be something else to watch this tournament. The conference itself has not had a national champion since Michigan State won it back in 2000. Since that year, a Big Ten team has made the championship of March Madness 8 different times, and they’ve lost all 8 times. It’s very weird for a conference as good as the Big Ten to not have a national champion in the conference for 26 years, but they have a pretty good chance to end that streak this year. There’s the obvious favorite, which is Michigan. They’ve dominated the Big Ten this year, going 19-1 in conference play and 29-2 overall. They have the offensive firepower and the defensive prowess that most championship teams have. But they did lose a big game to No. 1 Duke and got upset by unranked Wisconsin. Barring those 2 games, Michigan has looked dominant and will become one of the favorites going into March Madness. You also have 2 other Big Ten teams as projected 2 seeds in Illinois and Michigan State. Illinois has gotten a lot of hype this year off of the rise of Keaton Wagler and a lot of European talent stepping into roles. Illinois has looked a little bumpy as of late, losing to UCLA on a buzzer beater and getting mollywhopped at home by Michigan. Despite the recent losses, Illinois has just recently gotten all their players back from injury, as Andrej Stojakovic recently played his most recent game against Maryland with the flu. That forced him to come off the bench and play limited minutes, which for a lot of the year has been the case for varying starters. The only consistent starter this year has been Keaton Wagler, so the hope is with everyone back that Illinois can make that deep run and win a national championship. Michigan State would be the other main team to watch from the Big Ten. They are led by Jeremy Fears Jr, an all-american point guard, who’s been clutch for them in a lot of close wins. They also have three forwards who do a lot of heavy lifting in Jaxon Kohler, the main scorer of the three, Coen Carr, the high flying athlete who’s known for his dunks, and Carson Cooper, a four year senior who’s been with the program his whole career. Michigan State has some gutty wins like their win against Illinois, Purdue, and North Carolina. They still have Coach Tom Izzo, and he was the last Big Ten coach to win a national championship, so they have the coaching experience. Michigan State is always a contender going into March Madness, but this year they have the chance to get over the national championship hump.
There’s 68 teams going into March, so there is a lot to cover, but those are some of the main things to watch going into the tournament. It’s still called March Madness for a reason, so anything can happen. That’s the fun in filling out a bracket. So fill out those brackets and watch the madness unfold!
